"Between 2013 and 2020, China's atmospheric pollutant emissions have shown a clear downward trend, gradually decoupling from economic activities and energy consumption.
"Between 2013 and 2020, China's atmospheric pollutant emissions have shown a clear downward trend, gradually decoupling from economic activities and energy consumption. The continuous decline in SO₂, NOx, and primary PM₂.₅ emissions during this period demonstrates the effectiveness of clean air initiatives," said He Kebin, Academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and Director of the Carbon Neutrality Research Institute at Tsinghua University. He shared these findings from the latest study, "The Impact of China's Clean Air Actions on Pollution from 2013 to 2020," during a recent public forum.
He Kebin noted that effective implementation of emission reduction measures has been the primary driver behind improvements in PM₂.₅ concentrations. During the "Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan" period (2013-2017), the four most effective measures were upgrading power industry emission standards, remediating coal-fired boilers, phasing out outdated production capacity, and promoting clean heating in residential sectors. In the subsequent "Three-Year Action Plan for Blue Skies" (2018-2020), clean heating in residential areas, upgrading power industry standards, remediating coal-fired boilers, and controlling mobile source emissions emerged as the top contributors, accounting for 82% of the total impact of all measures.
The study also highlighted changes in the cost of air quality improvement during the two phases of clean air actions. From 2013 to 2017, the nationwide cost of reducing PM₂.₅ exposure by 1 μg/m³ per capita was approximately RMB 49 billion. However, as emission reductions entered a "deep-water zone" with diminishing marginal returns, the cost rose to around RMB 100 billion per unit of PM₂.₅ reduction from 2018 to 2020. Among the various measures, coal-fired boiler remediation and clean heating in residential sectors demonstrated relatively higher cost-effectiveness, while mobile source emission controls showed lower cost-effectiveness.
The research also underlined the increasing difficulty of further emission reductions as China enters a critical phase of pollution control. The rate of decline in pollutant concentrations is slowing, making future air quality improvements increasingly challenging. He emphasized that achieving the dual goals of "peak carbon emissions" and "carbon neutrality" should serve as a strategic lever to unlock the potential for structural adjustments in emission reductions.Efforts should focus on coordinated carbon and pollutant reduction strategies tailored to high-energy-consuming and high-polluting industries like steel and cement. Additionally, leveraging scientific insights into the nonlinear relationship between emissions and pollutant concentrations will help balance the reduction of multiple pollutants. Strengthening control measures for NOx, VOCs, and NH₃ will remain essential to sustaining improvements in air quality.